Posts by Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“The JW's and the control group were selected after the fact by Beliaev.”

Besty,

That does not change the fact that 19 JWs are documented to have died who shouldn’t have died for one reason and one reason only: refusing blood according to Watchtower doctrine.

Tell me something, what happens when this number of 19 moves upward in relation to the finite population of JWs in New Zealand?

Do you seriously think that the review of records from 4 hospitals in New Zealand contains all of such deaths among JWs in New Zealand?

Think about this given the finite number of JWs in New Zealand.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“I just love how Marvin always skips the questions he can't answer however many times they're asked.”

Simon,

Why are you hurling insult at me?

I’ve not skipped anything I can’t answer for. I’ve answered issues raised that have to me some semblance of relevance to the issue I’m answering for, which is my presentation of deaths due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine.

If there is some question you think I’ve skipped because I can’t answer it then please spell one out here and now and I'll respond.

Otherwise please be civil and stop with the needless insult. And, you might try responding to the substance of what I’ve presented. Or, should I think you’re ignoring what you can’t answer for?

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“eg - average number of JW's 12,700 - did you account for unbaptized publishers under the age of 15 being in the official JW figures, but which the Beliaev study would exclude, for example.”

No. Because it would not matter to the mathematical conclusion. The only thing you’d accomplish by adding to the number of JWs in New Zealand (over and beyond the published number) is to increase the sample size - to - deaths ratio. But this would not change the mathematical conclusion because the increased ratio would be applied to a much larger number (the world population of JWs adjusted upward on the same basis you’d adjust upward the number of JWs in New Zealand).

“I'm not saying your maths is wrong, or that your assumptions are not possible. Just that when I take a different approach I get a different answer, and there is a 13x difference in outcomes between our approaches.”

The approach you take is untenable because it attempts to use relevantly dissimilar information as inputs. I explained this already and you ignored it.

Keep pushing! That’s how we all learn.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Such a project is doomed because we do not know whether the numbers of JWs with blood disorders even in similar countries (e.g., Australia) are the same, let alone in very different countries (e.g., Ghana). Given the huge variability in health indicators even across similar countries there is absolutely no justification for extrapolating from a single study in one specific country to make worldwide estimates. It just smacks of research "gaming" that would be laughed out of peer-reviewed research "findings. It's a frank embarrassment akin to the knock-up research by Jerry Bergman - a worthy topic is treated with shocking superficiality.

“How the hell can you responsibly report your extrapolated results based on this single New Zealand study without making it very, very clear that it rests on an uncertain foundation?”

How? You can responsibly share this information by explaining how the extrapolation is made. Then let educated readers make of it what they will. That’s how.

The issue you cite of not knowing whether the numbers of JWs with blood disorders even in similar countries (e.g., Australia) are the same, let alone in very different countries (e.g., Ghana) is a factor to consider, and I did consider this in my assessment. My finding was that there is no reason to think mortality due to severe anemia patients (for all causes) refusing blood was more prevalent in New Zealand than any other nation. Hence to use these New Zealand values is not to overstate what we should expect overall (the world). For this reason my extrapolation is conservative.

On the other hand there is lots of data telling us that severe anemia can be and is successfully treated with blood transfusion therapy, and refusal of this therapy was the sole difference in the otherwise matched comparison study by Beliaev.

Besides the above, when we consider the 19 deaths at issue in the Beliaev study come from only 2 of 5 advanced trauma service hospitals, only 1 of 16 district trauma service hospitals and 1 of 8 hospitals with basic trauma services it should be apparent that these 19 deaths are not at all of the preventable deaths in the category of severe anemia patients refusing blood in New Zealand. Prorating this number to 33 based strictly on regional population is, again, conservative. If we assumed each of hospital with equal facilities had similar outcomes we’d end up with a much, much higher number.

In the end, the issue you cite is no flaw because my number of 50,000 is not predicting how many needless deaths have occurred due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine over the 50-years of 1961 to 2011 but, rather, to say the numbers suggest this is a conservative estimate of how many have needlessly died due to Watchtower's blood doctrine, and that based on well documented information (the Beliaev study).

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Sorry, I thought it was 19 deaths over a 10 year period or 1.9 people per year. Where did 33 come from? If the numbers don't work you can't just double them!”

Simon,

The data set used in Beliaev’s study was of 19 documented deaths over and beyond the norm in only 4 hospitals with trauma services out of 14 such hospitals in 2 of 4 regions of New Zealand.

- 2 of these 4 hospitals (Auckland and Waikato) are advanced trauma service. New Zealand has 5 hospitals with advanced trauma services. Data was collected from only 2 of these 5 hospitals for the Beliaev study.

- 1 of these 4 hospitals (Middlemore) is a district trauma services. New Zealand has 16 hospitals with district trauma services. Data was collected from only 1 of these 16 hospitals for the Beliaev study.

- 1 of these 4 hospitals (Northshore) is a basic trauma service. New Zealand has 8 hospitals with basic trauma services. Data was collected from only 1 of these 4 hospitals for the Beliaev study.

Hence Beliaev’s study never examined documents from any of the other trauma hospitals in New Zealand, including others with advanced trauma services. Most notably this did not include Wellington Hospital in the Central Region though this hospital is an advanced trauma service in a region that is one of 2 most likely to treat major trauma patients. The other region is Northern and 3 of its hospitals were included in Beliaev’s study.

What does this mean?

It means in order to match a New Zealand sample of JWs to the additional deaths (19) in Beliaev’s study an adjustment must be made to correlate population with source (of the data set).

There are at least 2 ways to accomplish this. 1 way is to multiple the total New Zealand population of JWs by the percentage of total New Zealand population living in the 2 regions. A 2nd way is to adjust the hard number (19) by prorating it to match New Zealand’s total population based on population of the 2 regions with hospitals in the study. I used the latter though mathematically either will give the same result. This is explained in my blog article on the subject. (Here: http://marvinshilmer.blogspot.com/2012/02/more-than-50000-dead.html

Making this adjustment we end up with a statistical number of 33 deaths beyond the norm over the period of 1998 to 2007. This adjustment is based on a hard number of documented deaths over and beyond the expected, and not on a mortality rate.

I did not “just double” numbers to make something work and do not understand your insinuation otherwise. To the contrary, I let the numbers speak for themselves.

My recommendation is that you learn the math of this thing and stop with the insults. If you have questions feel free to ask.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“The generally accepted death rate in New Zealand from anemia is 0.002/1000. Google it.

“Based on the Beliaev study, I believe that JW's have a 10x death rate from anemia at 0.02/1000

“You are happy to propose that JW's have a 130x death rate from anemia at 0.26/1000”

Besty,

What I’ve proposed is not a matter of whether I’m happy or unhappy, or what makes me happy or unhappy. I’m only concerned with what verifiable information can tell me.

I don’t have a means to Google the matched comparison sampled in the Beliaev study so you’re asking me to compared relevantly dissimilar items of information. Mortality due to anemia is not mortality due to the match comparison data set of anemia patients in the Beliaev study. But the Beliaev study does give us a hard number of actual deaths among a known sample set of JWs.

You want me to ignore the actual hard number of deaths documented in the Beliaev study.

You want me to ignore how that hard number compares with the number of JWs in New Zealand.

I can’t do either of the above. To do so would be irresponsible.

The Beliaev study gives us hard numbers saying over a 10-year period we have 33 statistical deaths among a community that averaged 12,700 members annually over the same 10-year period. Hence we have 3.3 deaths per year for 12,700 individuals per year. That’s a ratio of 3848-to-1 annually. These are the hard numbers. These numbers are not a rate. They are hard.

As for the 10x death rate, I doubt JWs have a 10x death rate compared to all patients with anemia. The 10x mortality has to do with one thing and one thing only: the matched comparison of patients in the Beliaev study suffering severe anemia. The study was not designed to document and examine overall mortality between JWs and non-JWs in New Zealand of anemia patients.

Regardless of the study’s design, we still have those two pesky hard numbers that you want me to ignore, and that you refuse to answer for. One of deaths over and beyond the norm suffered by JWs refusing blood, and one of the number of JWs in New Zealand.

Again, besty:

In year 1998 there were 5,544,059 JWs. You do the math and tell readers what a ratio of 3848-to-1 gives us for the year 1998 alone.

Can you do that, and put this hard number in writing for readers to watch your math?

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Here is the problem with JWs dying because they refuse blood: no one cares.”

I disagree with that perspective.

There are persons who care. For one, I care. I think you care too. I don’t think either of us is alone. I think close family and friends of JWs also care. I also think medical ethicists care. I think insurance providers care. I think lots of people care, and I think a lot more will care the more this dangerous doctrine is exposed for the mortality it causes. And, before I forget, in this discussion we’ve not even touched the extensive morbidity caused by this horrible doctrinal position.

“Arguing over 5000, 50,000 or 500,000 is a waste of time. We need to think like politicians and make issues into things the electorate care about through how things affect them.”

It’s no waste of time to find means and methods to draw a better circle around what Watchtower’s blood doctrine is responsible for.

The New Zealand data set studied by Beliaev and colleagues finally provides a means to examine a defined sample set of JWs with a verifiable population of victims due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine. This is something that deserves shouting from the proverbial roof top.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Not every JW is going to be willing to die over a Blood Transfusion.”

Published findings in many well vetted medical articles support that point.

Incidentally, a detail mentioned in Beliaev’s study of the New Zealand data set is that fresh frozen plasma was administered to 2 of the JW patients. Given the age criterion, I suspect these JW patients accepted this blood product rather than it being forced upon them.

Fresh frozen plasma is a blood product forbidden under Watchtower doctrine.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“So please explain: your 50,000 would be over 20% of 240,000 which would be the number if the regular mortality rate was applied to 30,000,000 JWs.”

Simon,

I have no idea what you’re talking about.

The 50-year period of 1961 to 2011 has an annual mortality rate at or about 1%.

During this 50-year period an annual 1% mortality rate applied to JWs results in this many deaths: 1,823,957.

If we assume a higher mortality rate among severely anemic JWs at a ratio of 3848-to-1 annually (my calculated ratio based on the New Zealand data set) then in addition to mortality resulting from the annual 1% rate we have a 50-year value of 1,873,957 (i.e., 1,823,957 plus 50,000).

50,000 is 2.7% of the aggregate total of 1,873,957.

What does this mean?

It means what I’ve said before in terms of how noticeable this would be to the JW community. It means:

- In 1961 this would amount to 1 death for refusing blood per 96 congregations. (For a total of 230 preventable deaths)

- In 1971 this would amount to 1 death for refusing blood in 72 congregations. (For a total of 392 preventable deaths)

- In 1981 this would amount to 1 death for refusing blood per 77 congregations. (For a total of 584 preventable deaths)

- In 1991 this would amount to 1 death for refusing blood in 66 congregations. (For a total of 1058 preventable deaths)

- In 2001 this would amount to 1 death for refusing blood in 62 congregations. (For a total of 1528 preventable deaths)

- In 2011 this would mean 1 death for refusing blood in 57 congregations. (For a total of 1878 preventable deaths)

I have no idea what your 240,000 value is supposed to represent in correlation to the 50,000 let alone the hypothetical 30,000,000. The mortality rate is an annual rate. The aggregate total of JWs subject to an annual mortality of 1% over the 40-year period of 1961 to 2007 is 182,395,680; not 30,000,000.

“Also Marvin, I think your terminology is wrong.”

No.

In my presentation the sample is the number of JWs in New Zealand during the 10-year period of 1998-2007. Annualized this number is 12,700.

In my presentation the population of that sample is the statistical number of deaths during the 10-year period of 1998-2007 over and beyond the norm for patients suffering severe anemia who refused blood. Annualized this number is 3.3.

I chose the sample of JWs in New Zealand during the 10-year period of 1998-2007 because thanks to Dr. Beliaev and company I have a reliable value of deaths in New Zealand suffered by JWs during the same period with severe anemia who refused blood product over and beyond the number that should have died (i.e., the matched comparison). Dr. Beliaev’s study provided a population for the sample of JWs in New Zealand. The resulting ratio of annual deaths per capita of JWs is 3848-to-1. Applied to the JW community, over the 50-year period of 1961 to 2011 this amounts to, in round numbers, 50,000.

“You asked "says who" when I said the study was done by proponents of blood transfusion.

“The study was by the International Society of Blood Transfusion which I would consider to be proponents of blood transfusion.

“Which part of that do you disagree with?”

The part that characterizes authors published by the International Society of Blood Transfusion as proponents of blood transfusion as though not independent in relation to blood transfusion as a therapy. Maybe it surprises you, but these authors are typically looking for good science to improve upon what we have and know. Typically they are not pushing an agenda of blood transfusion as though their work is “hardly an independent study”. This particular complain of yours is an unsupported sweeping generalization.

“I have done postgraduate work in statistics and, I could be wrong, but suspect you are describing something that has taken you out of your depth.”

Then put it to use.

Though it can be easy for any individual to reach beyond their training, I doubt this is going on in this case. Regardless of my opinion, the data is there for whoever wants to crunch the numbers, which is as it should be.

“what is the mortality rate per 100,000 due to anemia for JW's

“same figure for non JW's please.”

The study by Beliaev does not provide a mortality rate for patients suffering severe anemia who accept blood.

Hence the published 10x reduced mortality for patients suffering severe anemia who accept blood provides no benchmark to extrapolate a mortality rate for patients suffering severe anemia who reject blood.

Beliaev’s finding is that severely anemic patients who accept blood have a 10x reduced mortality compared with severely anemic patients who reject blood. He offers no such comparison to overall mortality rates.

To use Beliaev’s statistics to extrapolate how many JWs suffer death the result of severe anemia and blood refusal I’ve used the statistical value of deaths over the norm among a given population of JWs (33 over 10 years) to form what amounts to a ratio of deaths over the norm suffered by JWs suffering severe anemia. The ratio is 3848-to-1.

So, and again besty:

In year 1998 there were 5,544,059 JWs. You do the math and tell readers what a ratio of 3848-to-1 gives us for the year 1998 alone.

Can you do that, and put this hard number in writing for readers to watch your math?

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“let me know when you have 'looked into this'”

besty,

My algorithm was correct. I had only mislabeled it.

Marvin Shilmer